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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd