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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still